Gaza

Given the current vacuum in US leadership, and the seeming absence of any concerted US effort to stop it, I think the situation in Gaza will boil over very soon and Israel will undertake a major military assault against Hamas, with all that that entails. I'm thinking days or perhaps weeks, no more. Very soon, Israel will once again be at war.

All of the Israeli politicians' rhetoric, with an election looming in early Feb., seems to have coalesced around the need to invade Gaza and attempt to topple Hamas. Soon enough, one of Hamas' rockets will eventually cause some Israeli casualties, and that will be the excuse Israel is waiting for to invade, I think.

Some of the key questions to consider include:

• What happens next if we play out this scenario? How will Hamas respond? Will Hamas kill Gilead Shalit?
• What are Israel's objectives---and realistic options---given a military invasion?
• What will Hezbollah and/or Iran do if Israel invades? How about the Egyptians? The Syrians? The Saudis? The so-called "Arab Street?"
• How about the Palestinians on the West Bank? Will they sit idly by as their brethren in Gaza are attacked?
• What effect, if any, will the fighting have on world oil prices?
• What sorts of intense pressure will be brought to bear upon Israel---by the US, the EU, and Russia---to stop the fighting? And how will Israel respond to this pressure?

It seems a pipe dream that Israel will be able to destroy Hamas, since it enjoys so much support in Gaza and we know how little regard the residents of Gaza have for Abbas and Fatah. Hamas may go underground, but certainly not go away. Therefore, many of them will live to fight another day.

Israel will undoubtedly need to reoccupy at least portions of Gaza, if not most or all of the Strip, if they have any hope of limiting the rocket fire on their southern towns. But we already know that's an untenable situation long-term. So, realistically, what does Israel DO after it "reconquers" Gaza? I hope Israel doesn't make the same mistake the Bush administration did in Iraq, namely, invade without giving sufficient thought and planning to what happens next.

The invasion and "reconquering" of Gaza will be the straightforward part (I certainly won't say "easy" and there will be many casualties). But what happens after that is really the rub. Israel has no good options at all---none---so it will be forced to select from a number of very unappealing options, none of which will "solve" the Gaza problem for any length of time at all.

Therefore, in my opinion, at best a military invasion of Gaza will help reduce the rocket fire for some indeterminate period of time, but not eliminate the problem. Still, given the current unacceptable situation, I think Israel has been boxed into a corner and doesn't have any other choice but to go down this path and hope for the best.